Growth
Global growth outlook and expansionary pressure.
Signal Surface
Markets and world events become actionable when they stay structured.
Spells combines prediction markets, WorldMonitor events, and factor summaries into one intelligence surface. The goal is not to become a news terminal. The goal is to give users enough context to create a trigger, cast a strategy, or understand why a position needs attention.
Trigger cadence
60s
Active triggers are evaluated every minute against fresh-enough signals.
WorldMonitor factors
5
Growth, liquidity, risk, regulation, and shock are the only canonical factors.
Market pipeline
30 min
Enrichment cadence for metadata, relationships, correlations, and GMX market context.
Freshness rule
Fail closed
Execution-critical stale data does not get the benefit of the doubt.
Growth
Context
Liquidity
Flow
Risk
Stress
Regulation
Policy
Shock
Disruption
Pipelines + jobs
Signal ingestion is a scheduled pipeline, not a request-time improvisation.
Price refresh, market data, WorldMonitor, trigger evaluation, and clustering all run at different cadences. That separation lets the product keep UI reads fast, preserve last-known-good results, and fail closed when execution-critical freshness is missing.
Signal ingestion is layered by freshness
Hot prices refresh every two minutes. Enrichment and event intelligence update less often. Cluster analytics are the slowest, most derived layer.
Evaluation turns signal into action
The trigger evaluator loads active trigger state, respects cooldown metadata, checks freshness, and dispatches execution requests only for matching triggers.
Persistence separates live control from rich query surfaces
Neon stores history and analytics. KV distributes hot reads. The live trigger authority still sits in Durable Objects rather than in replicated query tables.
WorldMonitor model
WorldMonitor compresses noisy events into five durable factors.
Events carry title, source, time, severity, category, geography, and factor impact. But the user does not need a macro research terminal. They need a scan-friendly map, feed, and factor layer that can meaningfully connect to trigger creation.
Liquidity
Monetary conditions, credit availability, and market funding environment.
Risk
Geopolitical and systemic risk appetite moving across positions and markets.
Regulation
Policy and rule-making pressure that changes asset or market behavior.
Shock
Unexpected disruptive events that create abrupt repricing or uncertainty.
Severity model
Critical, high, medium, low, and info are used consistently across feed, map, and downstream alert context.
Trigger semantics + runtime
Trigger state has to stay simple for users and rich enough for operators.
The user sees active, paused, fired, and expired. Runtime logic adds cooldown suppression metadata, versioned state, authoritative DO commits, and outbox replication so a trigger does not accidentally resurrect during recovery.
Canonical user-visible states
- Active
- Paused
- Fired
- Expired
Runtime requirements behind those states
- Cooldown remains metadata on an active trigger, not a fifth lifecycle state.
- Pauses, deletes, DISARM, expiry, and fire side effects must commit atomically in the Trigger Registry.
- Tombstones prevent stale replay from reviving deleted triggers.
Degraded continuity
The trigger system is built to continue safely through database outages.
Live trigger state comes from the Trigger Registry DOs, not Neon. That lets the evaluator continue from committed control-plane state while Neon catches up later through idempotent replay.
Healthy path
Mutations validate at the Worker, commit in the account’s Trigger Registry DO,
append outbox events, and replicate to Neon asynchronously for query richness.
Neon outage path
Evaluator still reads Trigger Registry state. TLM uses its encrypted session mirror. Fire records and deactivation updates wait in DO storage or Queue until Neon returns.
Hard fail-closed rule
If both Neon and the Trigger Registry are unavailable, trigger execution stops. Position monitoring and alerts remain the last safety layer.